SPECIAL ISSUE - Verdict: guilty

The year-long, high-drama trial of RS president Milorad Dodik came to an end yesterday. Amid the threats, the facts, and the announcements, some things have become clearer.

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Feb 27, 2025

Good morning,

this is a special issue of Balkan Brew, your trusted newsletter on all things Balkan. We usually pop into your inbox on Friday mornings, but today’s edition is anything but usual.

The year-long, high-drama trial of Republika Srpska president Milorad Dodik reached a turning point yesterday. Amid the threats, the facts, and the announcements, some things have become clearer—others remain murky.

Join us in this special edition of Balkan Brew as we cut through the noise of the past few weeks and look ahead to what’s next.

Just one final request—if you find the information here useful, please forward this newsletter. It helps us grow and bring you even more of this kind of coverage. And if you don’t want to miss any update, hit the subscribe button 👇

Verdict: guilty

LIKE A SWISS WATCH. The first-instance decision by Judge Sena Uzunović of the State Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina came just after 13:00. By 13:12, the media were already running headlines about Dodik, who was found guilty of defying the decisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s High Representative.

AND THE OTHER GUY. Miloš Lukić, the former acting director of the Official Gazette of Republika Srpska and Dodik’s co-accused, was acquitted of the same charge.

THE SENTENCE. The verdict includes one year in prison and a six-year ban from holding the Presidency of Republika Srpska (the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, BiH). However, under Bosnian law, Dodik can avoid prison by paying 100 marks per day, totaling around 18,600 euros.

AND A FEW ADDITIONS. The Court later issued a press release clarifying that the verdict also bars Dodik from holding any official position in legislative, executive, judicial, or administrative bodies, as well as any institution fully or partially financed by public funds.

So many people were waiting for the verdict that *Klix*, the country’s most-visited news website, **crashed under pressure**. *Photo courtesy of a Balkan Brew reader.*

DODIK’S REACTION. Dodik remained in Banja Luka and was not present during the verdict reading. Addressing a crowd of supporters in front of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, his first reaction was surprisingly upbeat: “there's no reason to worry, I've learned to deal with more difficult things”, he said.

BFFs. According to Dodik, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was the first to call him after the verdict, followed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán also sent a Hungarian special forces delegation to train with RS police on the same day of the verdict.

Dodik was joined at 7 PM in Banja Luka by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who said yesterday was “a difficult day for the Serb people as a whole”.

A LEGAL COUP. The RS National Assembly has denounced the verdict as a “coup attempt” by the BiH State-Level Court.

PRESSURE ON. The weeks and days leading up to the verdict were filled with threats and tension. Even Judge Uzunović received threats.

There were also a few bizarre moments, such as this interview in Banja Luka, where former NY mayor and Trump ally Rudy Giuliani spoke with Milorad Dodik. You can rewatch the entire interview at this link—but brace yourself: it's quite a wild ride.

FREEZE. The cherry on top was the announcement on Tuesday evening that Sarajevo would be without gas for a total of 48 hours due to damage to a structure in East Sarajevo (part of Republika Srpska). Repairs couldn’t begin because all the workers were allegedly at Dodik’s rally supporting him. The situation was resolved before anyone could even feel the cold.

Rewind ⏮

Back in 2023, Milorad Dodik and Miloš Lukić were charged with failing to comply with decisions issued by the High Representative.

SORRY, WHO? The Office of the High Representative (OHR) is “an ad hoc international institution responsible for overseeing the implementation of civilian aspects” of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995.

WITH GREAT POWER... The High Representative wields the so-called “Bonn Powers”, allowing him to issue decisions that are legally binding for everyone.

…COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY. In the past, the HR has intervened in a range of issues—from amending laws to banning nationalist or corrupt public officials from office.

These decisions have often expanded state authority over the entities, putting the HR on a collision course with Republika Srpska authorities, who seek greater autonomy and have repeatedly ignored HR decisions over the years.

QUICK FIX. Failing to comply with decisions issued by the High Representative was criminalized after the current HR Christian Schmidt himself amended the BiH criminal code in 2023.

The Bonn Powers have also provided some entertainment—featuring in ZDF Magazin Royale, Germany’s equivalent of Saturday Night Live.

WHINING. Dodik took part in the trial—though not so willingly. He called the process “politically motivated” and claimed that the Court of BiH lacked jurisdiction to judge his actions as RS President.

COINCIDENCE? He also delayed the tribunal’s work by skipping multiple hearings. Conveniently, this meant the verdict was delivered after Trump—who is generally considered less interested in Balkan affairs, as we explained in this special issue following the U.S. presidential elections—became president.

What’s going to happen next?

What we got yesterday was just the first-instance verdict. Dodik and his team will likely file an appeal (they have 15 days to do so), with the final verdict expected by the end of the year.

FROZEN. This means that yesterday’s verdict has no immediate legal consequences. Dodik won’t go to prison—for now—and he can continue his political activities.

BUT... Political consequences are another matter. Before the verdict, Dodik had warned that if found guilty, it would be “a death sentence” for the country.

PARALYSIS. Following the verdict, Dodik reiterated that Bosnian Serbs will refuse to participate in State institutions—a move that, due to the country’s institutional setup, will effectively paralyze their work.

TOUGH TIMES. Dodik announced that the National Assembly of RS will approve new laws prohibiting the State Court and Prosecutor’s Office from operating in the entity. Another law will ban SIPA (BiH’s Special Investigation and Protection Agency) and OSA (Intelligence-Security Agency) from functioning in RS. Dodik also declared that RS will withdraw from the joint army and that the entity will take control of its own borders.

DRAFTS. Some of these draft laws were already approved yesterday night by the Government of Republic Srpska and sent to the entity’s National Assembly for consideration.

QUOTE. We asked analyst Adi Ćerimagić from the European Stability Initiative to comment on the situation. He noted that the recent actions of the new U.S. leadership have created a political vacuum in Bosnia and Herzegovina. “Dodik and Serbian President Vučić will try to test the U.S. and EU and see how far they can go”, Ćerimagić said.

We know, we know—the new U.S. administration is wild and unpredictable. And yet, as this tweet from the State Department spokesperson after the verdict shows, its first 'on record' reaction is oddly similar to the old, predictable U.S., backing state-level authorities against challenges from lower levels of government.

SILVER LINING? Perhaps the most encouraging takeaway is that a national court has stepped in to make such a ruling. Until recently, decisions like this would have happened only with international intervention, as Politico correspondent Una Hajdari noted.

That’s it for today. We’ll see you tomorrow for our usual weekly issue of Balkan Brew—though fair warning, it might be shorter than usual. Thanks for being with us, and don’t forget to share today’s edition.

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