SPECIAL ISSUE - Trump is back, back again.
The most unpredictable President is again in the White House, stronger than ever. What does that mean for the Balkans?
Gooooood morning everyone!
This is a special issue of Balkan Brew — the newsletter that brings you all the latest news from the Balkans.
The long election night has ended, and it appears that the most unpredictable and divisive figure ever to hold the U.S. presidency is on course to win again. Donald Trump is likely to become the 47th president of the United States (in a previous version of this newsletter, we mistakenly reported his victory as official; however, it looks like we’ll need to wait a bit longer for confirmation).
Our personal endorsement may not be that important, but we gotta say: we’d have much rather sent the other email. What’s done is done, though, and it leaves us with a question: what can the Balkans expect? We’ve gathered the main talking points from the experts to get a taste of what the next four years may look like. Without further ado, let’s dive right in!
WHAT DO YOU THINK? If you think this a valuable analysis, please share it with others who might be interested. We did spend all night putting it together, after all!
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A nationalist’s dream
There’s no doubt that most nationalists leaders throughout the Western Balkans are toasting the new President with a few glasses full of rakija. But the truth is that even the experts disagree on what he might do once he’ll be sworn in again.
AN EYE ON KOSOVO. It’s the question: will anything change in the USA’s approach to Kosovo and Serbia? During Trump’s first term, his administration put a strong focus on the topic. But over four years later, it’s clear those efforts didn’t achieve much.
NEW FRAME, OLD FLAME. According to this analysis by BIRN, what Trump brings to the table might be a change in style, but not in substance: the 2023 EU-brokered deal will remain the blueprint for US policy on the matter. Still, surprises might be in store…
THE REAL PLAYER. Much of Trump’s policy in the Balkans will depend on the role that Richard Grenell, the former US envoy to the Balkans, will have in the new administration. His involvement would be bad news for Kosovo’s PM, Albin Kurti, given their public beef in the past.
VUČIČ’S BUDDY. By contrast, Grenell has maintained a strong relationship with Serbia and its president, Aleksandar Vučić—one that extends well beyond Trump’s first term.
WHAT ABOUT THE REST? The Balkans likely won’t be a priority for the USA in the near future. That means that, even with a wild card like Trump, not much is expected to change for the region—aside from broader shifts that will affect the EU and the world (yes, we’re talking about the US role in NATO).
Russia, Russia and again Russia
Looking east, both Moldova and Romania have much to lose from a Trump presidency. Much of it, as you can imagine, comes from Trump’s approach to Russia.
LOOKING GRIM. Despite Moldova recently reaffirming its European aspirations, the country’s future will be very much tied to that of neighboring Ukraine, particularly concerning the breakaway region of Transnistria. What we know is that Trump doesn’t seem too fond of Zelensky, and it’s still unclear what he means when he talks about a peace in Ukraine. Yes, Harris would have been a far safer option for Moldova.
GREAT ANXIETY. Although bilateral relations between Romania and the USA were strong during Trump’s first term, his win is now causing “great anxiety,” according to security expert Marius Ghincea. Besides Trump’s approach to Ukraine, another concern is the anticipated worsening of US-EU relations, which will surely impact the Balkan country.
THE BROS ARE BACK
BROMANCE. When it comes to Turkey, the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had an excellent personal relationship with Donald Trump — he met him nine times during his presidency. This connection was crucial for Erdoğan to make a case on issues he cares about (like in 2019, when Trump greenlighted Turkey’s offensive in Syria).
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WITH A PINCH OF SALT. Despite that, Turkish officials were unusually tight-lipped about their preferred candidate throughout the whole campaign. Ok, they were probably hedging their bets for whoever won. But Trump’s unreliability as an ally might have played a role in this.
WILL IT BE ENOUGH? In an interview with BBC Turkey, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, researcher for the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank, noted that, despite the two leaders rapport’s, the countries’ relations experienced "the worst period in their history" during Trump’s first term. So, who the hell knows what to expect?
And this is it for this time. It’s been a really long night, and we hope you enjoyed the read.
If you liked this special issue, let us know via email, Twitter (Rodolfo and Tommaso) and - most importantly - by forwarding this newsletter to anyone who might be interested.
We’ll be back on Friday. Meanwhile, we’ll try to catch up on some sleep.
Take care!
BB